Lewis, Kemp lead in LPGA opener; Tseng lurking

Golf Betting Lines

02/09/2012 - Victoria, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stacy Lewis and Sarah Kemp both posted four-under 69s on Thursday as the 2012 LPGA season kicked off with the first round of the Women's Australian Open.

This season also began much like last season went -- with Yani Tseng in contention for the win.

The world's top-ranked player, Tseng posted a three-under 70 on Thursday at the Royal Melbourne Golf Club. She is tied for third with Brittany Lincicome and Julieta Granada.

Melissa Reid, reigning U.S. Women's Open champion So Yeon Ryu, Sandra Gal, Jessica Speechley and Sarah Oh are tied for sixth, two shots behind the leaders after posting 71s.

It's no surprise for Tseng to be near the top of the leaderboard. Last season, she won seven times on the LPGA Tour and 12 times worldwide, and ran away with the tour's money title.

It's also no surprise to see her near the top of the leaderboard at this event, which she won in 2010 and 2011. This is the first year that the Women's Australian Open is being held as an LPGA event.

Lewis posted her round of four-under after overcoming several mistakes. She started from the 10th tee and posted a bogey on No. 11, but then immediately got the stroke back with a birdie at the par-five 12th.

That birdie began a stellar run for Lewis, who also birdied the 13th, 15th and 17th. A bogey at No. 18 sent her around the turn at two-under, but Lewis settled down. She made at least par at every hole on the front nine, with birdies at six and eight.

"Early on it was about as easy as it could play," Lewis said. "Towards the end there, when the wind started blowing, nine and 18, the greens were really firm."

Kemp, on the other hand, played a bogey-free round while also starting at No. 10. She had just one birdie through her first 11 holes, but another at the par-three third help kick-start her move up the leaderboard. She also birdied the fourth and seventh to reach minus-four.

Tseng bogeyed her first hole Thursday, but birdied four of the next eight holes to make the turn at three-under. She ran off seven consecutive pars before a birdie at the par-five No. 8, but she bogeyed her final hole to end the first round outside of the lead.

"It was disappointing to finish with a three-putt on the last hole," Tseng said. "It is probably the toughest hole on the course. But I am still very happy shooting three under today."

American teenage sensation Lexi Thompson, who will turn 17 years old on Friday, shot a 74. She is the youngest winner in LPGA and Ladies European Tour history, having won the LPGA Classic in September and Dubai Ladies Masters in December.

NOTES: Three of the top four players in the world are in the field - Tseng, second-ranked Suzann Pettersen and fourth-ranked Cristie Kerr. The Norwegian Pettersen posted a seven-over 80, while the American Kerr had a two-over 75...This is the first time that the LPGA Tour has played in Australia in over a decade...Christel Boeljon, who won the Australian Ladies Masters last week, also posted 74 on Thursday.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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