Ochoa Edition Name Visit For Open Edition

Golf Betting Lines

1.) What are your thoughts on Chris DiMarco?

 

2.) What about Sergio Garcia?

 

3.) Did you catch something Peter Alliss said on the air?

 

Alliss was talking about why Woods is so good and at one point referenced his "Oriental" background. Oops. I don't think it's too much for a guy with his experience to use the proper word to describe an entire race. I don't think Alliss made the statement to be derogatory, but this is 2006, you can't say anything. Everyone knows that.

 

In the minority here as far as I've heard, but I really liked it. Two par- fives in the last three holes? That's awesome. Sure it was browner than a chocolate Easter bunny, but I thought it was fair and much trickier than the scores indicated. With no wind, any course in the United Kingdom is defenseless.

 

RANKINGS

 

1. Tiger Woods - two odd stats - never won a major coming from behind and hasn't won the PGA since 2000. Better get on that. 2. Phil Mickelson - will never win a British Open. 3. Vijay Singh 4. Retief Goosen 5. Jim Furyk 6. Ernie Els - he's back. Everyone calm down. 7. Geoff Ogilvy 8. Adam Scott 9. Chris DiMarco 10. Luke Donald

 

RANDOM THOUGHTS

 

Ok, here's the change that's coming with regards to the column. Beginning either this week or next, I am going to start doing a blog. This is something that I've carefully thought about and am really excited about doing. Not sure how it will impact this column yet, but look out for the blog either later this week or the middle of next week.

 

Women's world No. 1 Annika Sorenstam, the 2000 and 2002 champion, posted a three-under-par 69. She stands alongside Michelle Wie, Suzann Pettersen, Michele Redman, Wendy Ward and Heather Young in a tie for eighth.

 

Sorenstam was plus-one through seven holes, but birdied eight and eagled nine to make the turn at minus-two. She dropped another stroke at the 14th, but birdies on 16 and 17 got her to three-under.

 

Ochoa, who has also won twice this year, converted back-to-back birdies from the second and again from the sixth to move to four-under. Around the turn, she birdied the 10th at Evian Masters Golf Club.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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